Dashboard ini menggunakan model probabilistik multi-faktor yang mengolah 28 indikator dari 5 pilar analisis menjadi skor komposit untuk setiap timeframe.
Step 1 — Normalisasi: Setiap indikator dinormalisasi menggunakan Z-score (berapa standar deviasi dari rata-rata historisnya) dengan winsorization di ±3σ untuk menghindari outlier.
Step 2 — Signal Mapping: Z-score dikonversi ke signal [-1, +1] menggunakan fungsi tanh(). Beberapa indikator (Fear & Greed, MVRV, Funding Rate) memiliki processor khusus berdasarkan domain knowledge karena memiliki threshold non-linear.
Step 3 — Weighted Aggregation: Setiap indikator memiliki bobot berbeda per timeframe. Misalnya, MVRV Z-Score berbobot tinggi untuk long-term tapi rendah untuk short-term. Funding rate berbobot tinggi untuk short-term tapi rendah untuk long-term.
Step 4 — Composite Score: Weighted sum menghasilkan skor [-5, +5] yang kemudian di-map ke probabilitas [5%, 95%] menggunakan sigmoid scaling. Score di atas +3.5 = Strong Bullish, di bawah -3.5 = Strong Bearish.
Bobot tinggi: Derivatif (funding rate, OI), Teknikal (RSI, MACD), Sentimen. Bobot rendah: Makro, On-Chain cycle metrics.
Bobot seimbang di semua pilar. Sweet spot antara noise jangka pendek dan fundamental jangka panjang. Default view.
Bobot tinggi: On-Chain (MVRV, NUPL), Makro (M2, Fed Rate, DXY). Bobot rendah: Derivatif, Teknikal jangka pendek.
Data kebijakan moneter Federal Reserve, inflasi, kekuatan dollar, likuiditas global, dan pasar tenaga kerja. Makro menentukan "iklim" bagi aset berisiko.
| Indikator | Short | Medium | Long | Keterangan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate ↩ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | Federal Funds Rate. Higher rates tighten liquidity. Rate cuts historically precede BTC rallies by 2-6 months. |
| Fed Rate Direction (cutting/hiking) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | Whether the Fed is in a cutting or hiking cycle. Cutting = bullish, hiking = bearish. |
| CPI Year-over-Year Change ↩ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Consumer Price Index YoY. Rising inflation forces hawkish policy. Falling inflation allows easing. |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) ↩ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | US Dollar strength index. BTC has -0.4 to -0.8 correlation with DXY. DXY below 100 is historically bullish for BTC. |
| M2 Money Supply YoY Growth | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | Global M2 money supply growth rate. BTC follows M2 with ~90 day lag. M2 expansion = more liquidity chasing risk assets. |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield ↩ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10-Year Treasury yield. Higher yields pull capital from risk assets to bonds. |
| 10Y-2Y Yield Spread | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Yield curve slope. Inversion (negative) predicts recession. Steepening after inversion signals recovery. |
| Unemployment Rate ↩ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | US unemployment rate. Rising unemployment signals economic weakness but may trigger rate cuts. |
Data langsung dari blockchain Bitcoin: valuasi (MVRV, NUPL), perilaku holder (SOPR, LTH/STH), aliran exchange, dan kesehatan jaringan (hash rate). Ini adalah "fundamental" Bitcoin yang sesungguhnya.
| Indikator | Short | Medium | Long | Keterangan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV Z-Score | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score. Below 0 = heavily undervalued. Above 7 = cycle top. |
| Net Unrealized Profit/Loss | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | Measures aggregate unrealized profit/loss. Below 0 = capitulation. Above 0.75 = euphoria. |
| Spent Output Profit Ratio | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | SOPR below 1.0 means coins sold at a loss (capitulation). SOPR bouncing off 1.0 in bull markets = buying opportunity. |
| Exchange Net Flow ↩ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | Net BTC flowing into/out of exchanges. Positive = selling pressure. Negative = accumulation. |
| Long-Term Holder Supply Change | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | Change in coins held by long-term holders (>155 days). Accumulation = bullish. Distribution = top signal. |
| Hash Rate Trend | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | Bitcoin network hash rate. Growing hash rate signals miner confidence and network security. |
| Puell Multiple | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | Daily coin issuance value relative to 365-day MA. Below 0.5 = miner capitulation (great buy zone). Above 4 = potential top. |
| Realized Price vs Spot | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | Spot price relative to realized price. Spot below realized = deep value territory. |
Pasar futures dan options: funding rate, open interest, options put/call ratio, implied volatility. Menunjukkan positioning dan sentimen trader leveraged.
| Indikator | Short | Medium | Long | Keterangan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perpetual Funding Rate (OI-Weighted) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | Weighted average perpetual funding rate. Extremely positive = overleveraged longs. Negative = short squeeze potential. |
| Open Interest 7d Change | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Change in total futures open interest. Rising OI + rising price = strong trend. Falling OI = deleveraging. |
| Options Put/Call Ratio ↩ | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Ratio of put to call option OI. High ratio = bearish sentiment (contrarian bullish at extremes). |
| Implied Volatility Skew (25-delta) ↩ | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Difference between 25-delta put IV and call IV. Positive skew = downside risk. Negative skew = upside demand. |
| Futures Annualized Basis | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Annualized premium of futures over spot. Positive = contango (bullish). Negative = backwardation (panic). |
Fear & Greed Index (CONTRARIAN — extreme fear = buy signal), ETF flows institusional. Sentimen digunakan sebagai sinyal kontrarian, bukan konfirmasi.
| Indikator | Short | Medium | Long | Keterangan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fear & Greed Index | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CONTRARIAN indicator: Extreme Fear (<20) = best buy opportunities. Extreme Greed (>80) = sell signals. |
| Bitcoin ETF Net Flow (7d) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 7-day net flow into/out of Bitcoin spot ETFs. Positive = institutional accumulation. |
| Stablecoin Market Dominance ↩ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Stablecoin % of total crypto market cap. High = capital on sidelines (contrarian bullish at extremes). |
RSI, MACD, Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, volume analysis. Memberikan timing dan konfirmasi untuk sinyal dari pilar lain.
| Indikator | Short | Medium | Long | Keterangan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI (14-period) | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Relative Strength Index. Below 30 = oversold (buy). Above 70 = overbought (sell). |
| MACD Histogram | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | MACD histogram direction. Positive = bullish momentum. Crossovers signal trend changes. |
| Price vs 200-day MA | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | Price position relative to 200-day MA. Above = bull market structure. Below = bear market. |
| 50/200 MA Cross | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | Golden Cross (50 above 200) = long-term bullish. Death Cross (50 below 200) = bearish. |
| Bollinger Band Position | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Price position within Bollinger Bands. Below lower = potential bounce. Above upper = mean reversion risk. |
| Range | Klasifikasi | Probabilitas |
|---|---|---|
| > 3.5 | Strongly Bullish | 5-15% |
| 1.5 to 3.5 | Bullish | 5-15% |
| 0.5 to 1.5 | Slightly Bullish | 5-15% |
| -0.5 to 0.5 | Neutral | 5-15% |
| -1.5 to -0.5 | Slightly Bearish | 5-15% |
| -3.5 to -1.5 | Bearish | 5-15% |
| < -3.5 | Strongly Bearish | 5-15% |